Each day Broad Market Recap – August 21, 2025

World flash PMIs painted a usually extra optimistic view of enterprise circumstances, sparking some danger rallies right here and there.

Greenback energy nonetheless emerged because the dominant theme for probably the most a part of the day, although, with merchants busy positioning forward of Fed head Powell’s Jackson Gap speech.

Right here’s how main asset lessons carried out within the newest buying and selling periods.

Headlines:

• New Zealand Steadiness of Commerce for July 2025: -0.58B (0.1B forecast; 0.14B earlier)
  • New Zealand Exports for July 2025: 6.71B (6.7B forecast; 6.63B earlier)
  • New Zealand Imports for July 2025: 7.28B (6.1B forecast; 6.49B earlier)
• New Zealand Credit score Card Spending for July 2025: 1.4% y/y (0.9percenty/y  earlier)
• Australia S&P World Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 55.1 (54.4 forecast; 54.1 earlier)
• Australia S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 52.9 (51.5 forecast; 51.3 earlier)
• Japan S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 49.9 (49.4 forecast; 48.9 earlier)
• Japan S&P World Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 52.7 (52.8 forecast; 53.6 earlier)
• Australia Client Inflation Expectations for August 2025: 3.9% (4.4% forecast; 4.7% earlier)
• Swiss Steadiness of Commerce for July 2025: 4.3B (4.5B forecast; 4.3B earlier)
• U.Ok. Public Sector Internet Borrowing Ex Banks for July 2025: -1.05B (-2.1B forecast; -20.68B earlier)
• Germany HCOB Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.1 (50.3 forecast; 50.6 earlier)
• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 49.9 (48.7 forecast; 49.1 earlier)
• Euro space HCOB Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.7 (50.8 forecast; 51.0 earlier)
• Euro space HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 50.5 (49.7 forecast; 49.8 earlier)
• U.Ok. S&P World Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 53.6 (51.7 forecast; 51.8 earlier)
• U.Ok. S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 47.3 (48.6 forecast; 48.0 earlier)
• Euro space Building Output for June 2025: 1.7% y/y (1.7% y/y forecast; 2.9% y/y earlier)
• U.Ok. CBI Industrial Traits Orders for August 2025: -33.0 (-25.0 forecast; -30.0 earlier)
• U.S. and EU launched a joint assertion citing that tariffs aid for autos might hopefully are available in just a few weeks
• Canada CFIB Enterprise Barometer for August 2025: 47.8 (50.8 forecast; 50.9 earlier)
• Canada Producer Costs Index Progress Fee for July 2025: 2.6% y/y (1.9% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y earlier)
• Canada Uncooked Supplies Costs for July 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.9% m/m forecast; 2.7% m/m earlier); 0.8% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 1.1% y/y earlier)
• U.S. Preliminary Jobless Claims for August 16, 2025: 235.0k (224.0k earlier)
• U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August 2025: -0.3 (9.0 forecast; 15.9 earlier)
• U.S. S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash for August 2025: 53.3 (49.7 forecast; 49.8 earlier)
• U.S. S&P World Providers PMI Flash for August 2025: 55.4 (53.0 forecast; 55.7 earlier)
• Fed official Schmid reiterated that inflation dangers outweigh dips in employment
• Fed official Hammack famous that either side of the central financial institution’s twin mandate, inflation and jobs, are below strain
• Euro space Client Confidence Flash for August 2025: -15.5 (-14.4 forecast; -14.7 earlier)
• U.S. CB Main Index for July 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -0.3% m/m earlier)
• U.S. Present Residence Gross sales for July 2025: 2.0% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; -2.7% m/m earlier)

Broad Market Value Motion:

Market actions through the Asian session had been as thrilling as watching paint dry, as rangebound motion was largely the secret whereas merchants braced for top-tier catalysts forward.

Crude oil was an exception as soon as once more, with the vitality commodity persevering with its ascent on elevated geopolitical tensions retaining sanctions fears and world provide considerations in play. Internet constructive world flash PMI figures additionally helped propped oil larger on expectations of stronger demand, together with the EU-US joint assertion on presumably seeing auto tariffs aid “hopefully” quickly.

U.S. Treasury yields began to show larger across the London session whereas greenback energy picked up on positioning forward of Fed head Powell’s Jackson Gap Symposium speech in the present day. Analysts appear to be anticipating a extra cautious tone on easing, weighing on fast charge minimize expectations, with mid-tier U.S. knowledge and flash PMIs supporting a extra optimistic outlook.

On the flip facet, U.S. equities inched decrease on expectations of rates of interest staying larger for longer, dampening hopes of stronger spending and funding exercise down the road. Gold and bitcoin additionally sustained a bearish trajectory all through the day, probably slowed down by greenback energy as nicely.

FX Market Habits: U.S. Greenback vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

Greenback domination carried on for yet one more day, as market contributors continued to regulate portfolios in anticipation of a probably cautious tone from Fed head Powell throughout his upcoming Jackson Gap speech.

Nonetheless, there have been some pockets of weak spot in opposition to its main counterparts, which drew help from web constructive PMI readings. Australia indicated a sooner tempo of progress for each manufacturing and providers sectors whereas Japan printed a stronger than anticipated manufacturing PMI shut sufficient to sign business growth.

Within the euro zone, the area’s manufacturing business reported a shock return to growth whereas France additionally noticed a slower tempo of contraction within the providers business. Combined outcomes had been seen from the U.Ok. however the sharper contraction within the manufacturing sector did little to derail sterling energy.

Broader USD good points had been seen just a few hours into the London session, solely taking a quick breather when the U.S. preliminary jobless claims and Philly Fed index stunned to the draw back, earlier than resuming a steeper climb as Fed officers mentioned stronger considerations from inflation versus employment.

By session’s finish, the greenback closed larger throughout the board, most notably in opposition to JPY (+0.58%) and CHF (+0.47%) whereas nonetheless logging first rate good points versus AUD (+0.16%) and NZD (+0.13%).

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar

• U.Ok. Gfk Client Confidence at 11:01 pm GMT
• Japan Client Value Index Progress Fee at 11:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Jackson Gap Symposium at 12:00 am GMT
• Germany GDP Progress Fee QoQ Remaining at 6:00 am GMT
• France Enterprise Confidence at 6:45 am GMT
• Canada Retail Gross sales Remaining at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada Manufacturing Gross sales Prel at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech at 2:00 pm GMT

All eyes and ears are on Fed Chairperson Powell’s Jackson Gap Symposium speech later within the day, as greenback merchants are hoping to glean clues on whether or not or not a September charge minimize is so as.

Keep in your toes for remarks from different central financial institution heads as nicely since these might have robust implications on future coverage strikes and total market sentiment.

As all the time, look out for world commerce developments and geopolitical headlines that would affect risk-taking. Keep nimble and don’t overlook to take a look at our Foreign exchange Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!