Let’s be clear… There are not any emergency charge cuts coming.
The economic system is manner too sturdy. So should you’re betting on a Fed pivot to bail out your portfolio… do not.
Why do I say that? As a result of the information says it.
The market says it. Even bonds say it.
“Increased for longer” is not a principle anymore. It is the bottom case.
Fed Funds Futures at the moment are pricing in a close to 100% probability the Fed pauses in June.
Not solely that… there is a 65% probability we solely get two cuts all 12 months. That is it. That is the story.
Not as a result of inflation is spiraling uncontrolled (thank goodness). However as a result of the economic system merely would not want charge cuts.
Individuals are spending. The buyer is holding up. There is no laborious touchdown to repair.
Q1 GDP dipped, however that was simply frontloaded imports forward of tariff hikes. Q2?
The Atlanta Fed is now forecasting +3.8% QoQ progress.
That is not simply resilience… that is energy. Why would the Fed stimulate into that?
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It might be like handing extra sweet to children already bouncing off the partitions.
So what can we do? We stick with long-term threat belongings. We purchase the dips. We do not let worry dictate technique.
That does not imply we cannot see corrections. But when the gang begins panicking about recession once more?
Fade it. That is precisely what we did on April 9, on the backside.
We loaded up on $HOOD… and even took a swing at $ROBN, the REX Shares 2x levered Robinhood ETF.
That commerce labored. And it labored as a result of we ignored the noise and trusted the information.
So keep sharp. Be cautious. Handle your threat.
However do not watch for the Fed to avoid wasting you. As a result of this 12 months, they will not.
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